The formal and traditional answer is makes, because the subject is the singular noun phrase receiving homemade cupcakes. Thus, if a subject is. I must have heard people use it incorrectly so much that the correct way sounds strange.
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This is the rule to be applied while deciding what to opt for. I will use your suggested. In the context of this question, the approximate meaning is 'to produce', 'to.
To make for is an idiom with several different meanings.
The subject must agree in number with its verb.
