The subject must agree in number with its verb. This is the rule to be applied while deciding what to opt for. I will use your suggested.
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I must have heard people use it incorrectly so much that the correct way sounds strange. To make for is an idiom with several different meanings. The formal and traditional answer is makes, because the subject is the singular noun phrase receiving homemade cupcakes.
Thus, if a subject is.
In the context of this question, the approximate meaning is 'to produce', 'to.
