In the context of this question, the approximate meaning is 'to produce', 'to. Thus, if a subject is. I will use your suggested.
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The formal and traditional answer is makes, because the subject is the singular noun phrase receiving homemade cupcakes. The subject must agree in number with its verb. To make for is an idiom with several different meanings.
This is the rule to be applied while deciding what to opt for.
I must have heard people use it incorrectly so much that the correct way sounds strange.
