The formal and traditional answer is makes, because the subject is the singular noun phrase receiving homemade cupcakes. In the context of this question, the approximate meaning is 'to produce', 'to. To make for is an idiom with several different meanings.
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I must have heard people use it incorrectly so much that the correct way sounds strange. Thus, if a subject is. This is the rule to be applied while deciding what to opt for.
I will use your suggested.
The subject must agree in number with its verb.
